Following the unusually dry weather for this time of year, Lucy Barker and Steve Turner, hydrologists at the UK 皇冠体育国际娱乐 for Ecology & Hydrology, provide an overview of the latest situation for water resources across the UK...
Most people will have noticed the unusually dry weather over the past few weeks. With relatively high temperatures for the time of year and minimal rainfall, the ground has been noticeably dry, and river flows are lower than usual.
The dry spell combined with warmer than average temperatures have contributed to a higher-than-usual number of wildfires for the time of year in many parts of the UK, raising fears for wildlife and vegetation. Farmers are also concerned about the effects of the dry weather on their crops, particularly at this stage of the growing season.
Nationally, March rainfall was less than half of the average (43%), and England and Wales recorded only about a quarter of their usual rainfall (25% and 23%, respectively). Wales experienced its second driest March on record after 1944, while England had its fourth driest March (both in records from 1890). The Thames and Wessex regions each recorded just 13% of their long-term averages. At the UKCEH鈥檚 Wallingford office, it was the driest March on record with only 5.6mm of rainfall recorded at its weather station, which has been running since 1962. #
Increasing rainfall deficits
2024 was very wet in certain areas, especially central and southern England as shown by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) below, which compares the rainfall for the past 12 months to the long-term average. The Thames and Severn Trent regions registered their third and fifth wettest years, respectively (in records from 1890).
However, below-average rainfall was recorded in northern and western areas of the UK over the last year, with these deficits intensifying over the last three months (shown by the 3-month SPI below) with large areas in the north and west of the UK classified as 鈥榮everely dry鈥� or 鈥榚xtremely dry鈥�.
The current dry spell has led to below normal or lower river flows across much of the country. In March, many rivers in northern and western areas registered exceptionally low flows, some of which were the lowest on record for March (e.g. Mourne, Eden, English Tyne, Conwy and Welsh Dee).
Groundwater levels also declined, with record lows at Easter Lathrisk (Northern Ireland), Killyglen (Scotland) and Pant y Lladron (Wales). However, groundwater-dominated rivers in southeast England were within the normal range or above 鈥� still bolstered by the wet weather in 2024 鈥� and reservoirs are relatively healthy, with stocks for England & Wales generally around 90% of capacity at the end of March.
Soils have begun to dry, particularly in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The Wessex and Southern regions recorded the driest March soils since 1961 (joint driest with 1990 for the Southern region). UKCEH鈥檚 COSMOS-UK network shows exceptionally low soil moisture levels at many sites in central and southern England at the end of March, with nine sites recording their lowest March soil moisture (in records that start between 2014 and 2018).
April so far
There was little appreciable rainfall across the UK during the first two weeks of April. By 12 April, only 2% (1.2mm!) of the monthly average rainfall had been recorded for England and Wales, although the rain this week means that by the 15th this has increased to 27%.
The UK Water Resources Portal shows that river flows continued to recede into mid-April. In many catchments, flows were the lowest seen for this time of year and were comparable to 鈥� if not lower than 鈥� significant drought years like 1997 and 2011 which had notably dry springs. The hydrographs below compare 2025 flows to date to flows from notable drought years 1976, 1984, 1997 and 2011 for the Clyde, Eden, Welsh Dee and Taw.
Looking ahead
This week鈥檚 unsettled weather and cooler temperatures has provided some relief, indicating that the situation is not critical at this moment in time, but the long-range weather forecast from the Met Office suggests that high pressure is likely to return in the last week of April and into early May, which would mean a return of dry, settled conditions. This is also reflected in the Met Office forecast for April as a whole, which shows there is 1.5 times the usual chance of April being drier than normal.
The longer-term, seasonal, forecasts in , do not provide a strong indication of above-average rainfall for the next three months (April-June), and so river flows and groundwater levels are likely to remain below normal for the foreseeable future.
Continuous monitoring will be essential to assess the impact of these weather patterns on agriculture and the environment as we move further into spring and summer.
Blog compiled with contributions from Rachael Armitage and Wilson Chan.
For more on the water resources situation see the latest and , and up-to-date data on the .